Too close to call.

This is probably the most 'national' of the senate races. Things will really heat up in the next few weeks.

This wrap-up from the DC area.

COLORADO- Pete Coors (R) vs. The Hon. Kenneth Salazar (D)- Open Republican

You likely remember him as the guy in the jacket in those Coors Light commercials urging you that "1 means 21." Well, now Pete Coors is running for Senate, proposing a lowering of the drinking age to 18 (untrue), saying that it would promote responsibility at a younger age. Coors, a conservative and the heir to the Coors beer fortune is running against very popular Attorney General Ken Salazar, and is looking to retain the senate seat vacated by retiring Republican senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Salazar has twice won races in the Republican-leaning state. In a name recognition survey, most respondents matched Coors with the word "beer,"while Salazar with the words "attorney general," good news for Salazar. Quickly, name your state's attorney general. Most polls have Salazar up a couple percentage points in this Republican-leaning state. (Not according to yesterdays polls)

From the Washington Times on yesterday's debate.

Colorado Senate candidates Pete Coors and Ken Salazar turned up the heat at a debate yesterday in a tight race that's morphing from cordial to combative.

"I want to cut your taxes Ken wants to raise your taxes," Mr. Coors, a Republican, said at a debate sponsored by the Colorado Association of Commerce and Industry. "I want to cut lawsuit abuse Ken thinks the current system is just fine."

Meanwhile, Mr. Salazar, the state's Democratic attorney general, slammed Mr. Coors for accepting campaign donations from pharmaceutical interests.

"Prescription-drug companies are the hidden hand behind [Mr. Coors'] campaign," Mr. Salazar told the packed luncheon crowd of about 500 people.

Mr. Coors was taken aback.

"You said you wanted to keep this a clean campaign, and you're calling me the handmaiden of drug companies," Mr. Coors said.

The campaigns have gone on the offensive even as polls continue to show no clear leader in the race. A Ciruli Associates poll for the Pueblo Chieftain released Sept. 18 showed Mr. Salazar leading by one percentage point, well within the margin of error.

But a Rocky Mountain News poll released the same day showed Mr. Salazar ahead of Mr. Coors by 11 points. A survey for

Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli said the wildly divergent surveys indicate that the race probably is too close to call.

Pete Coors may need coattails.

From the Colorado Springs Gazette.

Its not in doubt that the nations economic ship is cruising in unsettled waters.

Colorados U.S. Senate candidates Thursday laid out their analysis of the nations economic situation and their plans for jumpstarting the economy in a debate hosted by the Colorado Association of Commerce and Industry.

Democrat Ken Salazar and Republican Pete Coors said they want the economy to grow, but they have different views about how to do that.

For Coors, the answer begins and ends with tax cuts.

The best way to help the most people is to have a strong, vibrant economy, he said. Our president . . . and the Congress had the courage to pass tax reforms in 2001 and 2003 that are lifting all ships. The tax cuts are working.

The nation went into a recession in 2000, an economic downturn caused by inflated stock values in the tech market and a host of other factors. (true)

Soon after the bubble burst, hijackers attacked New York and Washington on 9/11. That sent shockwaves through the nations economy. (true,true,true)

Millions of Americans lost jobs, saw their pay cut and were hit with skyrocketing insurance costs. (kinda true, more people are employed today then at any time in American history, the unemployment rate, 5.5, is lower than the average for the last 20 years)

President Bush and Congress responded with an economic-stimulus package, cutting taxes by more than $1.7 trillion during a 10-year period. (true and it worked) But the cuts are temporary, and theyve been accompanied by record deficits. (true if measured in today's dollars, untrue if measured as a percentage of the GDP or in constant dollars)

cross posted at The American Kestrel

Are Taxes A Campaign Issue?

The thought actually sparked when I read the headline "Salazar Won't Sign Tax Cut Pledge". Turns out it wasn't Ken Salazar refusing to sign the pledge, but his brother John who is running for Colorado's 3rd Congressional District seat against Greg Walcher.

The thought that sparked was how have Coors and Salazar presented their positions on taxes.

A quick review of their campaign websites finds a major heading, brief statement, and 6-page PDF document on the Coors For Senate site. The document addresses tax code simplification, making tax relief permanent for American families, elimination of the death tax, small business relief, elimination of the AMT, eliminating tax penalties for our military, rural community tax credits, livestock disaster tax relief, homeownership tax credit, elimination of hidden taxes and the dividend tax, ending the taxation on social security benefits, and IRA contribution limits. You can get a copy here. Coors' positions are against increases in taxes and for returning more of the monies paid to those who paid them.

A quick review of Salazar's campaign website, although it actually took longer because you have search the text on each page to determine if he addresses the issue, found a number of references to taxes. One would expect burying if you're trying to hide your position on the issue. Salazar's positions, although explicitly stated, point the reader to the conclusion that Salazar will vote to RAISE taxes every chance he gets:

From The Issues CREATING JOBS AND ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY on Salazar's website:

"I am committed to work on crafting deficit reduction proposals. Our nation needs a balanced approach, a combination of spending cuts, budget reforms, and tax reforms that spread fairly the pain of deficit reduction.

No one likes paying more taxes. But we must have a fairer tax policy that rewards work, not just wealth. We need to be realistic: we cannot fund a strong national defense, homeland security, continue the war and nation-building in Iraq, as well as address education, health care, infrastructure and other domestic needs, at the same time that we permanently and significantly reduce our revenue base. Those who suggest we can safely increase spending while we permanently decrease taxes risk crippling the economic future of our nation."

Family ties run deep.

Cross posted at: ClayCalhoun.com

The Potential For Vote Fraud in Colorado

Colorado 2004 looks like it's fixin' to be Florida 2000 - Nightmare on Colfax.

Like many other states, Colorado has seen a surge in voter registration. The Democrats have the largest share of those new registrations. Two of the most active groups have been the New Voters Project and Fair Vote Colorado. The New Voters Project is an arm of Ralph Nader's Public Interest Research Groups, and Fair Vote Colorado is run by a researcher at the liberal Bighorn Center, and a former Democratic operative. All of these groups share the Democrats' goal of expanding voter registration, even at the expense of ballot integrity.

There are two parts to the problem: what do I need to provide to register, and what do I need to provide to vote?

The answer to the first question is: a voter registration form stating your name, address, birthdate, and a signature. No ID. Social Security Number or Driver's License Number is not required. They will say it's required, but counties must register you anyway, if you don't provide one.

As a result of Florida 2000, Congress passed something called HAVA, the Help America Vote Act. This act mandated something called "provisional voting," which the states must allow. These are ballots cast pending validation. The Federal Government does not require any identification to be presented at the polls.

The Colorado Secretary of State's office has added several requirements. All voters, including provisional voters, must present either a driver's license or some other form of identification. It's worth noting that a number of these id's merely prove that person A lives at address B, but do nothing to assure that Mr. X standing in front of the poll judge really is person A.

Even this is too much for Colorado Common Cause, which has filed a lawsuit seeking to remove all ID requirements for provisional voting. This means that someone could register and vote, and never have to provide anything more than a signature. I have verified this assumption with the Colorado Secretary of State's Office.

The potential for fraud, and given the registration numbers, fraud on a scale large enough to tip a close election, should be obvious.

This is something of a tangential issue, one related to the integrity of Colorado elections as a whole. For those who are more interested, there's more complete coverage at View From a Height:

Vote Fraud in Colorado?

The Denver Post Does Voter Registration

Registration Requirements

ID at the Polls and What You Can Do

New poll: Coors surges ahead

Hot off the presses: the latest 9News/SurveyUSA poll on the Senate race shows Republican Pete Coors with a 5-point lead over Democrat Ken Salazar. The survey of 625 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 21 to 23 and contains a 4-point margin of error.

Five weeks ago, a similar poll showed support for the two candidates was almost even. Since then, as both continue to advertise heavily throughout Colorado, Coors has increased support.

Catch this result: Maybe the most surprising numbers are when the poll looks at the priorities of rural voters.

Salazar has campaigned on his rural roots, growing up on the family ranch in the San Luis Valley. He trails by 13 percentage points in this area of the poll.

No surprises among the other findings:

Coors is leading by 24 points in the Colorado Springs area, but the poll also gives him a 1-point edge in the Denver metro area.

Coors leads significantly among male voters, while the two candidates are tied for the support of female voters. Gender gap?

The momentum is on Coors' side. The key is to keep the pressure on.

The same pollsters conducting a survey at the same time found President Bush leading Kerry in Colorado by a 52-44 tally. Results of the presidential poll were released Friday.

Kudos to Best Destiny for his astute call after the results of the presidential poll were released: "I would expect this trend to begin to translate towards the Coors/Salazar race, also. Hopefully the President has coattails--and long ones." It appears so.

Cross posted at Mount Virtus.

Coattails and Anchors

The Denver Post today discusses the effect of the presidential race on Colorado politics, specifically the effects of Kerry's unpopularity and Bush's popularity. The fact is that while Bush may demonstrate coattails for Coors, Kerry is more likely to act as an anchor for Salazar, a fact that Ken's brother John, who's running for a House seat, apparently recognized a couple of weeks ago.

Salazar has the Daschle Problem. No, he hasn't gone around hugging Michael Moore. But he knows that he can only get elected running as something he's not - an independent moderate.

Salazar portrays himself as a political moderate, the fellow from the San Luis Valley who wears a cowboy hat and transcends party labels. It worked in his statewide campaigns for attorney general, especially two years ago when he won a vast majority of the counties even as Republican Bill Owens easily won re-election as governor.

Campaigning in a cowboy hat, and putting a cowboy boot on his site as a fundraising device have helped cement this image. Having been Attorney General helps any Democrat look like a law-and-order kind of guy. But this is the first election where Salazar has had to run 1) on national issues, and 2) as a lawmaker rather than a law-enforcer. Salazar has no choice but to triangulate these issues, coming out with policy proposals that are practically mimeographs of Kerry's, while talking about independence.

He's run hard against Bush, but has had to distance himself from Kerry, skipping the last few local appearances by the national ticket. But much of his strategy seems to mirror that of the national ticket. Consider this from the Durango Herald about a weekend campaign appearance there:

Democrat Ken Salazar said Friday that homeland security will be his top priority if he wins his race against Republican Pete Coors in November's election for a seat in the U.S. Senate.

"I think the first and most important priority we as a nation need to uphold is to protect the nation and the homeland," Salazar said.

While Salazar has mentioned national security in general terms before, he's clearly made education and health care the centerpieces of his campaign. Just at the moment that Kerry begins attacking Bush over Iraq, Salazar discovers national security.

Coors has begun linking Salazar to Kerry on taxes. That's fine for a start, but Kerry and Salazar have a lot of liberal proposals on health care and education, proposals which aren't like to be popular here if properly vetted.

Salazar is caught between a rock and a hard place. He's tried to nationalize the race by running against Bush, but the more he does so, the more he risks running as Little Kerry. It's time to close the trap.

Cross-Posted at View From a Height.

Did You Notice That The Denver Post Likes Salazar?

In case you didn't, or were perhaps unsure, the Post's coverage today leaves little doubt as to which direction they lean. The story today on Hope Salazar is about as big a puff piece as one can find in today's media environment. This story is so pro-hope Salazar, that it gives the appearance of being written by her. It's almost as if the staff writer contacted Mrs. Salazar and had her do just that. I picture the conversation going something like this:

Colleen O'Conner: Hope, can you do me a favor? The aspen's are in full color right now and I'd really love to get up there and snap a couple of pictures, but as you know, I have this story to write.

Hope Salazar: Yes, I know.

Colleen O'Conner: You know that you and I agree on pretty much everything, so what say we come up with a solution that is mutually benificial. I'll send over a staff photographer to snap a couple of pictures and have him give you a tape recorder. I want you to record what you would want published if you could do a story about yourself. That way, you get out the story that you want our readers to read, and I get to enjoy the environment, or what's left of it after the Bush Administration's failed policies, for the weekend. How does that sound?

Hope Salazar: That sounds wonderful, Colleen. I'll talk about my business career. As you know, Kenny and I own a Dairy Queen, and we couldn't be more proud of it.

When you read portions of that story, this scenario is not that outlandish to envision. Take this passage, for instance:

"We got a new toaster oven, and we're still getting used to it," she says. "I told Kenny, 'Look at my hands!' This is our family business, and I'm the only one with the burns."'

My first thought was "Would you like some wine with that cheese?"

I find it funny that there was no mention of the fact that this Dairy Queen wasn't exactly the small business of the year. Didn't it lose money? From the Rocky:

The couple paid just $49 in federal taxes three years later, after apparent losses from their Westminster Dairy Queen franchise pushed their income to $47,479.

Hmmm. And he wants to have a say in how money is spent in the Senate. Thanks, but no thanks.

The other story in the Denver Post today must have pained the author greatly to write. If there is one thing that a Senate candidate needs in an election year, especially during a Presidential campaign year, it's the endorsement and support of your party's candidate. Now I'm certain that John Kery would love to support, and has already endorsed, Ken Salazar, but Kenny, as Hope would call him, doesn't seem to want it. John Kerry's support of a Senate candidate has become the third rail of this years political season. Touch it and you die. This, better than any other indicator, shows the deep trouble in which the Kerry campaign finds itself. Lower tier candidates are fleeing from his support like rats from the S.S. Titanic.

The Republican candidates, have no such problem. Here in Colorado, Pete Coors openly and happily accepts the President's support and supports the Presidents policies. Not so with Mr. Salazar:

Salazar portrays himself as a political moderate, the fellow from the San Luis Valley who wears a cowboy hat and transcends party labels. It worked in his statewide campaigns for attorney general, especially two years ago when he won a vast majority of the counties even as Republican Bill Owens easily won re-election as governor.

So the image Bush paints of Kerry as a traditional, liberal Democrat could hurt Salazar in a state that generally votes for Republicans and where registered GOP voters outnumber Democrats by roughly 180,000.

The issue as I see it, is not that Bush paints Kerry as such, but that his 20 plus year voting record confirms it. The President doesn't have to do anything except hold up Kerry's voting record and say, "See for yourself." Local Democratic candidates know this and that's why they are fleeing his support.

Then there is this little peice of information:

Salazar has skipped Kerry's last three events in Colorado. In debates, he does not talk about Kerry. Instead, he speaks of being an "independent voice for the people of Colorado" and tells voters that he gets both the Democrats and Republicans mad at him by speaking up for what he believes is right.

I confess that I didn't notice that Salazar wasn't at any of Kerry's recent events, but then again, did anybody else, and will it matter? I think it will. Ken Salazar is avoiding John Kerry like John Kerry is avoiding reporters in regards to the magic hat and the Christmas in Cambodia stories. It can't last forever, and eventually, the public will notice that they share a party denomination.

Cross posted at Mangled Cat