Senate Polling

The Pete Coors for Senate team announced via e-mail the results of a recent poll conducted by the Tarrance Group.

The key points: the race is still Salazar's, but by a statistically insignificant 46%-44% (LV, MoE 4.5%); among voters with a favorable impression of both candidates, Coors +20; among voters who identify terrorism/homeland security as their number one issue, Coors +46; on fiscal discipline issues, Coors +20.

The main shortfall of Coors (somewhat inexplicably) at this point seems to be name I.D.--that should change with the current media blitz. Though I'm not sure why recent media blitzes haven't done the trick.

I'm not sure how much weight I put in this poll--it was conducted on behalf of the Coors campaign. However, I could be downright hostile to this poll and I would still have to concede that a 46 point advantage on national security issues is astonishing, and not good news for Ken Salazar. His attempt to portray himself as a "law and order" candidate has clearly not broken through on the issues of defending the country. If this issue advantage finds a way to get through the murk of the campaign, this should be a race that mirrors the Allard/Strickland race of 2002.

Factor in the recent RMN poll that has the Presidential race at a dead heat, and it would seem that this state is much closer than anybody would like. Time to get to work.

UPDATE: The Rocky Mountain News has as its headliner today the results of its own poll which puts Salazar up by 11 points. In the article it does acknowledge the Coors internal poll, but this still can't be a good sign.

JOSHUA ADDS: I'd certainly be happier if their poll showed Coors up 10 points rather than down. But the internals don't seem to be available online, and Powerline has a post suggesting that polls that don't disclose their internals are more likely to favor Kerry. Could the same be true of this poll? The internals aren't there on the Rocky site, the News4 site, or the Public Opinion Strategies site. Without them, there's no way of looking at demographics, party balance, or anything else of interest. It doesn't surprise me that Salazar leads among Hispanics, for instance, but it does surprise me that he leads among rural voters.

cross-posted at Best Destiny

Salazar on the Bush Rally

Ken Salazar's campaign sent out the following email about the Bush rally:

Bush: I was a little hot at old Ben [Nighthorse Campbell] when I heard he was retiring, because he's such a fine senator, but I feel a lot better knowing that Pete Coors is going to be the U.S. Senator following him. (Applause.)

AUDIENCE: Pete! Pete! Pete!

This is the first of many trips the President will make to prop Pete up. Let us know what you think about that?

Ken will be an independent voice in Washington not a rubberstamp. Pete Coors has also been in D.C. raising money at events hosted by Senators like Rick Santorum, Bill Frist and George Allen.

Salazar has received $10,000 each from HillPAC (Hillary) and DASCHPAC (Tom Daschle). While John Thune may be on the way to relieving him of the latter obligation, the former will still be operative for at least two more years.

In the meantime, Coors has been emphasizing wasteful spending, at the expense of Charles Grassley. That ad is airing even as I'm typing these words.

As for "propping up" Pete Coors, that's what the top of the ticket does. It's called "coattails." Salazar has run his entire campaign against the President. We'll see who's on the stage Friday when Kerry comes into town.

First Senate Debate

Pete Coors and Ken Salazar met in their first one-on-one debate over the weekend, at an event in Grand Junction sponsored by Club 20.

To read the article (since I was in Denver over the weekend) it sounds like both men came off about equally bad--neither being able to claim the role of "statesman." On the plus side for Coors, this assessment by Gwen Florio:

It was a newly assured Coors who took the podium, in contrast to the man who stumbled through some of his primary debates,

I hope that's true and it holds up throughout the process. I blogged before about how unimpressed I was with Coors at two events during primary season, so I am encouraged that he may have picked up a little polish.

It also seems the two men have staked out their signature issues: Salazar, the economy and Coors, national security. I like the comparison--I think if those positions hold, this state will go with national security.

cross-posted at Best Destiny